The Latin American Report # 255

Nayib's debts

Sometimes appears that the Salvadoran economy is advancing, and indeed it is, nominally and physically speaking. Last March the Central Bank of the Republic reported that the economy had grown by 3.5%, with a GDP valued at more than 34 billion dollars. But we tend to take our analysis beyond mere growth, to look at where it is happening, and above all who is growing. (The same perspective with which we read here the potential advances that Milei may achieve in his attempts to turn Argentina into a regional artificial intelligence hub). For example, agricultural production in El Salvador has declined due to a lack of credit. For that reason, a cooperative in the town of Jiquilisco has half of its hectares idle. “As agricultural producers [we only ask] for credit possibilities in the banks, we are not asking for anything for free, but for opportunities to open up for us,” one of its members told AFP.

The country is getting into too much debt, say some experts, without this translating into concrete benefits for the people. “If a state gets into debt, one can say it is good, (because) poverty is decreasing in the country, investments are being made in health and education (...), but (the truth is that) both are increasing”, public debt and poverty, said an economist. Foreign investment quadrupled between 2022 and 2023, with many projects focused on tourism and real estate. There is a certain spillover effect, but not for citizens like Flor Beltrán, a textile female worker. “The salary is not enough for us,” she assures the French agency. The vast majority of the country validated Bukele for a second chance to lead the nation, basically because of his solid record in the fight against violence—obtained with controversy—, but now they demand a bigger slice of growth.

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Bukele begins his second term tomorrow, Saturday. Authorities claim to have thwarted a plan to torpedo the event, which the King of Spain will attend. Former guerrillas of the historic Farabundo Marti Front were allegedly linked to the plot, uncovered through the interception of telephone calls. It is interesting the level of suspicion that this accusation is having, something very typical of these times of narrative wars. “[It is] striking that having [previous] [guerrilla] experience they talk about these [plot] issues over [the telephone], it is too naive for people so prepared in insurgent [matters]”, says an analyst with a lot of reason. Part of the opposition accuses the Executive of perpetrating an act of political persecution after the arrest of eight former combatants. Armed Forces war veterans and former guerrillas have been demanding for some time that Bukele increase their pensions, which do not reach a third of the salary Flor receives, the textile worker who does not earn enough.

Violence plagues Montevideo

In the country where many of my computer engineer friends live, one of the safest in the region by the standards we have been observing in recent years, violence is on the rise. At least that is the worrying dynamic we see unfolding in the Uruguayan capital, where last night four people were murdered in a poor western neighborhood, including an 11-year-old boy, and two young men aged 16 and 18, respectively. A 17-year-old teenager who was also hit by bullets was reported to be in danger to his life. Already last year it had been reported that the national homicide rate was rising.

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Dollar crisis in La Paz

For some time now Bolivia has been facing serious difficulties with the availability of dollars, a problem associated with the reduction in its natural gas exports, and the high fiscal deficit that was contributing to sustaining certain social programs, such as subsidies to the population for the purchase of fuel. The lack of liquidity became evident last year. These days there are long lines to buy diesel, mainly, whose arrival is delayed due to non-payments to suppliers.

The transporters have been pressuring the government of Luis Arce, who also faces stiff opposition in Congress, including some members loyal to his former tutor and now rival Evo Morales. He is accused of mismanagement, but Arce defends that the basis of everything is "speculation". Poor cancer patients are desperate in the face of shortages of critical drugs and the corresponding inflation. “[In] the face of a more expensive dollar, [importers] are not buying or they bring in more expensive products”, says an analyst.

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And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.

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