Take Your Eyes of the Money

I would say:

keep your eyes on the price*

I have been here before most of you and my whole transaction history shows how I had my focus on powering up and voting. I am passionate about posting rewards and where they should go.
I try to support accounts that power up and vote, I think very little of the people who powered down Hive or Steem all the time and kept the whole community back, giving rise to curation innitiatives and a whole host of other problems.

I have also seen all sorts of price action and missed out on some obvious opportunities.
_{_{*I also think it should say ' off the money '}}

this time around, I will take some profits

I could not tell you what sort of pattern we are looking at, but I have seen the signs before.
I started powering down months ago and predicted exactly 0.80$ 2 months ago and I was spot on:

@felixxx/some-thoughts-on-hive-and-hbd-price

However, I feel like we are going to see 0.8$ HIVE soon.

Then I found some posts by @edicted, who has a more technical approach.
This is the latest post about the topic and it all sounds pretty solid.
It matches pretty much what my gut feeling told me:

@edicted/ten-red-flags-of-the-crypto-mega-bubble

Warning

This is not trading advice. I am trying to explain my strategy for if my vague predictions come true. I would advise you to not follow my strategy.

Don't come here complaining, if things go wrong for you.

Soetwas darf man nie unabhängig vom Gesamtmarkt betrachten.

This is my favourite trading advice, ever. Translation:

'Such things should never be judged without regards to the market at large.'

-Even if a certain trading pair goes through recognizable cycles, predicting the price perfectly is impossible. Global events of all sorts can impact different assets and you can always look for patterns of different magnitude, much like zooming in and out on your problem.

Prediction

The event I am speculating on is a price hike (soon) and a consequent bear market around HIVE.

The Hive price is not directly tied to BTC and has made gains when BTC tanked, before.
Traded right, there are some good potential profits to be made...
I have majorly fucked up opportunities like this before, though...

The Low

I expect the BTC price to crash around summer 2022.
...I would not be surprised if it hit as late as winter 2022, though.
This is when I should be in HBD or USDT already and waiting for the bottom to form, so I can get back into BTC and HIVE, unless...

...If Hive moves differently than BTC, I might look into selling my Hive for cheap BTC directly, if I haven't sold it already at that point...

The Top

I expect the top sometime between christmas 2021 and end of march 2022.
2 months ago, I expected the top to be at 0.80$. We have shot past that easily with a new ATH around 1.30$. Now, I expect the top to be around 3-5$.

I will try to guess the top right and sell most of my HIVE for USD then.

Interesting times

...very interesting.
I even moved some funds to @normaluser to play around with splinterlands and hive-engine.
I am late to the party, I know. We are in such a bull market, though. Everything seems to be growing like crazy and I am keen on buying some of those booster packs.

With Hive, I am already set up and ready for action; For Hive-engine and the tokens around it, it is almost already time to get out of, rather than into.
I am planning on making some quick moves and perhaps practice some, to be set up for when the bear market is over.

Long term

Long term I am bullish on BTC and HIVE - crypto in general.
Short term, I expect a dip and I want to trade it.

I kept 17k HP in my account, because I want to keep voting, of course.

Also something to keep in mind:

Traditionally, during times of low HIVE prices, posting rewards in HIVE are the best.
I remember getting 200 STEEM for a single post, while the payout was evaluated at around 28$, only.

There are times for hodling and there are times for playing your hand
...may you know when. Good luck!