Black Swan is "just temporary"

In major media outlets they say all this is just temporary. "We'll get back to normal soon!"
Well, layoffs can easily become permanent.

But they never want to focus on the fact that things were already on a downward trajectory two-three years ago. Essentially we can see the economy begin to fall from 2018 up until 2020 and as soon as you got to 2020 it simply fell off a cliff.

The biggest losses came in

  • the services and hospitality
  • trade transportation and utilities
  • construction

It might be hard to see on this chart here provided by ADP - but I just want to
give you a real look at the magnitude of what we are witnessing.

So right at the top here this line that's just showing us historically from 2003 up until 2020. Behind that purple line is a grey line, showing you the ADP National Employment Report. It might be difficult to actually see but on the right-hand side - no, that's not the border of this graph! This is the actual number. 20 million jobs are lost in US. Well, by now it's 26 million - but, who counts...

What about EU and Canada?

Across Europe and Canada, it's a little bit different story. Governments are easing the plight of workers idled, because of the coronavirus pandemic by essentially paying part of their salaries. People remain on the books. They keep receiving their salaries.

It's much more humane than in the United States, where some 26 million workers have lost their jobs over the past five weeks. Under the American system, workers are typically fired. They file for unemployment benefits and have to look for new work.

The European systems are also less disruptive for businesses, who know that when the current crisis ends, they can simply call their employees back to work right away, picking up where they left off.


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