Bitcoin: The road ahead


Bitcoin is back above $50k and my portfolio is looking good. The good thing about this uptrend is that some altcoins have done even better, so despite bitcoin being quite far from its previous high of $64k, my portfolio is only 10% away from its all-time high. I think the main reason for this is ETH and ADA having a good weight in my portfolio. Here is what I mean -


During the last 3 months, when Bitcoin has risen 30%, ETH has shown a 10% outperformance whereas ADA has risen 80%, giving a 50% outperformance over Bitcoin.

Anyway, Bitcoin did struggle to break 200 DMA for a while but has now crossed it with good strength. It did attempt to break it twice but failed and then finally broke out during its third attempt.

I have two more resistance levels on the chart before Bitcoin breaks above the previous ATH. Bitcoin is currently flirting with the first one and might retest this tomorrow or settle below it today. The resistance should not derail Bitcoin from new ATHs for a long time but if someone wants to trade for small gains, then one can look at this level.

The next resistance is around $60k. Between $50k and $60k could be a trading zone for the near term. Both these levels will not give many opportunities as I do not expect Bitcoin to trade range-bound for a long time. I don't expect any accumulation at this time, as May-June-July was a long accumulation period. I expect a strong uptrend going forward. Nonetheless, one can try to make a couple or more trades between $50k and $60k.

Plan B's stock-to-flow model predicts $135k by year-end as the worst-case scenario. The model has so far been spectacularly accurate in predicting Bitcoin price movement and may continue its stellar predictability. I think $100k by year-end is reasonable. If momentum is strong then the sky is the limit. Bitcoin will surely make a lot of people happy after year-end after a crappy couple of years staying at and working from home.

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