Bitcoin still hovering around 200 DMA


Bitcoin rose above $50k a few days ago and I was hoping that it would be able to reach 60k soon and would probably stay range bound between $50k and $60k for some time. However, that was not to be as Bitcoin is back to testing 200 DMA support. Even Michael Saylor's irresponsible purchases of Bitcoin are not good enough to push Bitcoin much higher above $50k. Let us look at what is being indicated by some other charts about the near-term trend of Bitcoin.

Today also happens to be the day for options expiry on Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell ~5%, and this could be termed as a volatility uptick before options expire.

The options market has also flipped bearish for the short term, with the one-week put-call skew reporting positive values. That’s a sign of short-term puts, or bearish bets, drawing higher demand than calls. The one-month skew is neutral, while the three- and six-month skews are still trading negative, indicating a long-term bullish bias.


Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex are also following the short-term trend seen in the options market. Clearly, traders are probably taking a step back before option expiry and holding off on taking any meaningful longs.

btc long.JPG

The good thing is that shorts have not risen, a clear sign of bullish bias in the market.

btc short.JPG

If we take a look at longs, they are settling around 200 DMA and one can hope that more longs will be initiated in Bitcoin futures near term. Not many are willing to increase shorts on Bitcoin as of today. Medium-term, options indicate that the market is overtly bullish. To put it simply, this drop in Bitcoin price yesterday is not something that one should be worried about. Next week could see Bitcoin test $50k again and then attempt to break that level. One more resistance for me after that - at $60k. Once that gets taken out, a new ATH should be hit.

3 columns
2 columns
1 column
1 Comment