Isn't it funny when the market decides to get some fuel into Bitcoin, suddenly Twitter is full of bullish statements on this coin? Sure, this coin may have proven itself. Bitcoin may have crossed the chasm and is trying to get into its growth phase. But does this mean the sky is the limit? "50k US Dollars soon", I've read a lot of times in my Twitter feed today. It is suggested Elon Musk Twitter profile (source) stating: "#Bitcoin" to be the trigger for the +/- 20% uptick BTC got less than 24hrs ago. Soon and BTC is reaching Mars if we shall believe Twitter.
creation by yours truly
Trying to get back to Earth
Do you notice last so few weeks what BTC is doing? The chart below shows the trend clearly. Downhill. The blue lines I drew a few days ago showing a tapering towards a breakpoint or move sideways. Last night (UTC timezone), some actors in the market decided to push BTC out of this triangle, to the upside. But this was short-lived. The mass in the market pushed BTC right back into the triangle.
And then... The massive breakout some hours afterwards! Super nice! We like to see this.
But does this show us, BTC to 50k US Dollars soon? All-time-high was at around 42k, while the breakout of last night reached around 38k only. Sure, a 15 to 20% increase over yesterdays value, but in the end, still 4k short of all-time-high. Since this afternoon (again UTC timezone), BTC is struggling to move up further. The bears are winning, hour after hour.
screenshot BTC/USDT chart at Binance
NOTE: The Chart above shows the situation of BTC before I started writing this article. At the time of publication, BTC moved further down to below 35k. Bears playing strong!
Nobody can predict the future (when somebody can, please let me know) therefore we will have to wait until we know what BTC will do. Will it move up further, break its record? Or will it come down?
A recent article by @edicted (source) suggest BTC can come down to 20k US Dollar. I would even say: Why not all-the-way down to 10k US Dollar? 10k was a value BTC loved for a long time and sometime back in 2020 it found enough strength to break this value. Why would this level not be the level it's gonna try to reach again, but now from the other side?
When we set Hopes and Dreams aside
I think it makes much sense BTC will come down for the simple fact that the altcoin season recently started driving BTC owners to sell BTC for whatever altcoins they like. This puts a selling pressure on BTC, which will push the value of BTC down.
Keep in mind, when the 18 to 24 months after the last BTC halving is gonna be a replay of the previous few BTC halving periods, it's gonna be very difficult to defend the idea of BTC moving up to 50k and beyond. It needs to retrace so it can go into its second run-up in Q3 or Q4 2021.
Sure, this time BTC may behave differently. But do you think it is realistic BTC will move to 50k soon? And then let's say 100k soonish after that? What will BTC levels be end of 2021? 1M? Surely, of course, that would be super cool! But realistic?
Why Ether could Outpace BTC
At the same time, Ether may come down as well. Though Ether shows all signs of a trend upwards, it has issues to break all-time-high. Recently it tested all-time-high a few times, set some new records because it just tipped over its previous record. But nothing and nothing is shown it has the power to truly break its record. We all know what usually happens. When a coin doesn't break after trying for a considerable time, people move their attention to something else while the coin will deflate to some lower levels.
On the other hand, it may play out differently for Ether. Though it may not set seriously higher all-time-high levels any time soon, Ether may keep on hovering around current levels.
Many top 100 coins are having swap pairs with Ethereum based DeFi contracts. To benefit from some extra income when acquiring some more altcoins, people may move more and more of their coins in these swap pools, not only locking up their altcoins of choice but Ether as well. It is these Ether lockups that may prevent Ether from coming down (too) hard. It may even cause Ether to set new all-time-highs regularly.
What Do You Think?
As you may know, I'm not much of a Technical Analyses guy (read this one if you like to learn about my TA approach). I may not even know too much about trading. Therefore my reasoning may be off by a gazillion miles!
You must have more knowledge than I have, so let your predictions come to the table. But please, give also your reasoning why you think this or that.
Those who are driven by Hopes and Dreams, please drop a comment as well... But try to make a super funny one! The more humour, The better 🙃 I like to see lots and lots of LOL's and love to roll over my floors for hours and hours 🤣
all images by edje unless stated otherwise
qsounds music & story library | A...K | L...Z |
hive curator with some curie superpowers