Look, it’s getting dire. I mean life on earth is becoming dangerous. Coronavirus is a pandemic that may be the big one that mirrors the Spanish flu of 1918 or thereabouts. It’s ripple effects are economic too.
This is the black swan event we don’t need now at this vulnerable time on the planet. China is in lockdown, literally. Half the country (500 billion) are not allowed to go to work or school. Or to go out of their homes. One person per household is allowed to go to the shop for food, maybe twice a week or so, from numerous reports I have read or watched on news and personal Youtube reports. I have heard from people inside china, at ground zero, and I have sourced responses from international sources. It all looks dire.
And as china’s economy slows down massively, they will crack, enter recession. But it gets worse. As china’s manufacturing stops – no one is going to work – so the world’s supply chain stops. That means no economic turnover, as well as no goods on the shelves in every town on the planet, mostly. Look at the goods you buy, most of them are manufactured in china. It’s all grinding to a halt. So international giant corporations will be slowing down too. For example Apple, there part come from china. What about the auto industry – massive reliance on china. So the global slowdown will trigger the recession that economists have been expecting for years.
We have been on the edge for years and now it has tipped. We are over the edge and falling fast. And as they say, it’s not the fall that kills you but the velocity with which you hit the ground. From what I’ve heard, the planet will reel this year. Italy has entire towns in lockdown now too. It is spreading, which means wherever the pandemic hits, everything shuts down. No work, no productivity, no income. And this is al it takes to cripple the economies of the artificially inflated financial systems of USA, EU, Japan and the world.
If china already has 24 hour crematoriums burning bodies, non stop day and night, then the figures of diseased and dead are under-reported and it is worse than reports are saying. Of course, it could calm down as summer approaches china and the disease subsides...maybe. But it can reappear next season. This may not go away. This may be the new normal – a deadly pandemic on the planet permanently.
The stock market has already shown a reaction and crashed 1000 points yesterday. Asian markets followed the west’s downturn. Already it was an overbought market in stocks and shares, so it was imminent already. Now the catalyst has arrived. Tech stocks, usually the leaders, are all taking a hit. Obviously Apple, like I say, can’t manufacture new items. Also china is one of the biggest markets for Apple. But they are not going to work to get paid. Businesses will collapse there as no one can go out to buy goods either. Demand will collapse, manufacturing too, as well as income. It will cripple everyone, from top to bottom.
With this threat to life and to economy, it is an overall black swan disaster from which the entire world may take years to recover. Life will never be the same again. None of us were around during the Great Depression, but if you read reports of the worthless paper fiat, the bread queues, for years, it looks dire. And that’s if you don’t die from the virus. Maybe I’m being alarmist, I hope it’s just that. World Health Organization says a few hours ago that china appears to be having a decline in new cases. That is hopeful news. Now let’s see if the rest of the world can contain theirs.
Prepping and stocking up on essentials to hunker down in quarantine at home for a month without going out, that is what some are recommending already, in first world countries. And they may be smart. This is a worse virus than the previous ones that came from china, more deaths already. The virus can’t be contained because victims don’t show symptoms for weeks but are infecting others without knowing they have it. Even if the virus is contained, the panic and the economic slowdown will be knock on effects hard to curtail.
Let’s see where this goes, but I am going to be prepping, buying supplies to survive at home with no income, no shopping as shelves empty or lockdown arrives, or just out of safety if the virus comes to my part of the world. Fortunately I’m as far as you can get from anywhere – the south coast of Africa – but my economy, hospitals, etc and social dynamic here are all already broken and in need of repair, so we are a major weak target nationally. And with our porous borders to the failed state of Zimbabwe allowing a flood of migrants, the virus can enter with ease from our neighbor, who happens to be full of chinese traders. Be prepared for the worst guys and hope for the best. This could be the worst time we have ever seen in our lifetimes so far.